2042 Tully Rd #9 · Hughson, CA 95326

$109,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1992 ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat & Clean Fresh Paint. Adult Park , Park Appproval.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1992
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot lease: no (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available; Deck parking access noted; No garage (carport/attached options provided)
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; 220V in kitchen; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1992
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Composition roof; Manufactured by Champion HM Builders Co (Infinity model)
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Covered deck; Porch; Storage areas/shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Marble countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Covered deck and porch; Open beam ceiling in living area; Dual-pane windows with screens; Storage area/shed(s) on site; Updated/remodeled interior; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry area with hookups only (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.4% in Hughson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#458 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hughson Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #681 of 1,400 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask is 311% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $109k implies a 506% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.34%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $57,446
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $146,840
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95326

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $109,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   remarks 396-char remark
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2005-05-04
   soldstatus $18,000 60-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Fresh paint in and out. 1993 unit with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Approx. Acreage: <1 Acre Other Rooms: Dining, Kitchen

9. 2005-05-04
   soldstatus $18,000 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Fresh paint in and out. 1993 unit with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Approx. Acreage: <1 Acre Other Rooms: Dining, Kitchen

10. 2005-03-29
    historical 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Neat & Clean Fresh Paint. Adult Park , Park Appproval.

11. 2004-05-17
    listed $26,500 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Fresh paint in and out. 1993 unit with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Approx. Acreage: <1 Acre Other Rooms: Dining, Kitchen

12. 2004-05-17
    listed $26,500 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Fresh paint in and out. 1993 unit with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. Approx. Acreage: <1 Acre Other Rooms: Dining, Kitchen

13. 2002-04-09
    historical
14. 2001-11-09
    listed $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $13,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,167
• After-tax cash flow: $10,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hughson Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600060
• Math proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,479
• Composite: 37.9/100
• National rank: #8695
• State rank: #681 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hughson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #15641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hughson, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,662

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.30%
• Current HPI: 319.3268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-48.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2005-05-04 Sold (MLS) $18,000 CRMLS
• 2005-05-04 Sold (MLS) $18,000 MLSListings
• 2005-03-29 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2004-05-17 Listed $26,500 CRMLS
• 2004-05-17 Listed $26,500 MLSListings
• 2002-04-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2001-11-09 Listed $35,000 CRMLS