81473 Golden Poppy Way

La Quinta, CA 92253

$619,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,965 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,856/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,246
• Tax + insurance: −$795
• HOA: −$622
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,230
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-446/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $173,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $619k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-446/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $612k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $586k (5.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $586k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#694 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A-, employment B+, housing B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Coachella Valley Unified (rural): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 659 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $398k; list at $619k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in La Quinta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,856/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($99k/yr) (locally 1078% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.