811 Regency Dr #802

Fishkill, NY 12524

$161,450C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 2022 · Condo · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$847
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$585
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-187/mo
• Annual: $-2,242/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $45,206

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $161k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (16.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#305 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brinckerhoff Elementary School (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B, #663 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 570 students, 16% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); John Jay Senior High School (math 96% / reading 98%, grade A+, #53 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 1,837 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.6% in Fishkill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.