811 Regency Dr #802 · Fishkill, NY 12524

$161,450

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo · 13 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $585/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Regency at Fishkill is an upscale, gated 55+ active-adult condominium community built by Toll Brothers in the heart of Fishkill. Designed for low-maintenance, single-level living, this sought-after community offers spacious one- and two-bedroom residences featuring open floor plans, high ceilings, granite countertops, private balconies, walk-in closets, and attached or assigned garage parking. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a beautifully appointed clubhouse, fitness center, outdoor saltwater swimming pool, meeting and social rooms, walking trails, gazebos, and beautifully landscaped grounds. The homeowners' association handles exterior maintenance, lawn care, and snow remo

Key facts

• $585 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $585; Association covers exterior maintenance, snow removal and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sidewalks, landscaping and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking; 1 garage space
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities
• Home design: Condominium; New construction; Entry level is first floor
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction; Other construction materials; Slab and other foundation types
• Exterior features: Patio; Community pool; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5; Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating with forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining area; Granite counters; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closet(s); Patio; Washer/dryer hookup; Pets allowed with size limit
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in hall; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $161k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (16.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.6% in Fishkill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#305 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Brinckerhoff Elementary School (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B, #663 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 570 students, 16% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); John Jay Senior High School (math 96% / reading 98%, grade A+, #53 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 1,837 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,410 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-37,405
• Equity at exit: $24,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-45,220
• Equity at exit: $13,959

Cash invested: $45,206 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12524

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$847
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$585
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $134,410

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-75	-5% $-131	+0% $-187	+5% $-243	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-284	+0% $-187	+5% $-90	+10% $7
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-146	base $-187	+0.5pp $-229	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,362
• Closing costs: $4,844
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1035 Main St #3 Fishkill, NY	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	0.56mi
1230 Hopewell Ave Fishkill, NY	3.0	1.5	1261	$3,200	$2.54	45d	1	0.62mi
9 Loudon Dr #6 Fishkill, NY	2.0	2.0	1071	$2,500	$2.33	15d	1	0.84mi
3 Loudon Dr #6 Fishkill, NY	2.0	2.0	1071	$2,600	$2.43	23d	1	0.85mi
5 Loudon Dr #9 Fishkill, NY	2.0	2.0	1071	$2,625	$2.45	15d	1	0.86mi
8 Fishkill Glen Dr Unit A Fishkill, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $585 · $7,020/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingexterior maint.poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $161,450 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $161,450 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $161,450 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $161,450 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $161,450 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $161,450 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $161,450 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   status $161,450 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $161,450 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,044
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$5,926
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − HOA: −$7,020
• − Depreciation: −$4,697
• Taxable loss: −$4,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This upscale, gated 55+ active-adult condominium community is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers spacious one- and two-bedroom residences and resort-style amenities. The property has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgraded kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more residents

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgraded kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more residents ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wappingers Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629880
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $83,184
• Composite: 53.38/100
• National rank: #1474
• State rank: #207 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fishkill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #5044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,079
• Population (ZIP): 15,079

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.70%
• Current HPI: 248.2896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $161,450 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid