4535 Tenpence Cir

Pea Ridge, FL 32571

$234,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,167
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-552/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $62,328

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-552/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#459 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.5% in Pea Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.