9 bd · 3.9 ba ·
4,898 sqft ·
Built 1920
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 120 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,837/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,255
Tax + insurance
−$717
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,016
Net cashflow
$850/mo
Annual
$10,195/yr
Cap rate
8.66%
Cash-on-cash
8.47%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$120,400
Investor read
This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $430k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $850 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $283/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($391k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $391k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $61k; list at $430k implies a 604% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
At $4,837/mo this rent would consume 146% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MKTTBZ214CE73A
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29