2223 Hays

San Antonio, TX 78202

$174,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-642/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.31%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (0.5% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pershing El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 303 students, 96% FRL); Houston H S (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 856 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 80% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.