4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,758 sqft ·
Built —
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,299/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,599
Tax + insurance
−$508
HOA
−$145
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$483
Net cashflow
$-437/mo
Annual
$-5,238/yr
Cap rate
4.58%
Cash-on-cash
-6.13%
DSCR
0.73
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$85,397
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $305k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-437 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (20.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (24.6% below list).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#381 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MMEMTM40KX2AY3
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29