866 Arkwright St

St. Paul, MN 55130

$250,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1922 · SingleFamily · Contingent - Inspection · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $540/mo
• Annual: $6,476/yr
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,896/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 818% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.