866 Arkwright St · St. Paul, MN 55130

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1922 10,541 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS 2-STORY LOOKING FOR NEW FAMILY! 4 BDRM, 2BTH WITH OPEN FLOOR PLAN. BLOCKS FROM ST. PAUL. SKYLINE VIEWS. HOME IS ON TWO LOTS!

Key facts

• Spacious back deck
• Updated kitchen
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GORGEOUSLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• SERENE UPPER-LEVEL BATH
• WALK-OUT FROM REC ROOM
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers (Xcel Energy)
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Main entry level on the main floor
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation; Roof older than 8 years
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Storage shed; City view; Tree coverage (medium); Public transit within six blocks

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on the main floor; two on the upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main floor; One three-quarter bath on the upper level; One half bath in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Separate/formal dining room; Storage space; Finished basement with walkout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room in the lower level/basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,896/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 818% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,320
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $53,158
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55130

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,996/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $610	+0% $540	+5% $469	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $425	+0% $540	+5% $654	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $603	base $540	+0.5pp $475	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 Sibley St Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1358	$3,269	$2.41	10d	10	1.31mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	22	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,996
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,780
• − Management: −$2,780
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $2,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$641
• After-tax cash flow: $5,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,775
• Household income: $54,130
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 47% Black 22% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Swedish 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Philippines, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 37% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.12%
• Current HPI: 281.2507
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+268.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $129,700 Public Records
• 2013-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-26 Sold (MLS) $94,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-26 Price Changed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-07 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-18 Listed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-07 Listed $67,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,996 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.