309 Virginia Ave

Shenandoah, VA 22849

$249,900C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,046 sqft · Built 1921 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,195/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 315 students, 81% FRL); Page County Middle (math 36% / reading 60%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 352 students, 70% FRL); Page County High (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 495 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 45% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $250k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.