309 Virginia Ave · Shenandoah, VA 22849

$249,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,046 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1921 0.34 ac lot Est $295k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

309 Virginia Ave | Shenandoah, VA Lots of potential in this two-story home located in the heart of town! This property features 4 bedrooms and 1.5 baths and is conveniently located within walking distance to the Shenandoah River, local shops, and the town park. Outside you'll find excellent space for hobbies, storage, or future projects with a detached two-car garage featuring epoxy flooring, attic storage, and space for a workbench. The garage is wired for a welder and well insulated. In addition, there is a detached two-story building with an attached one-car garage wired for a 220 heat pump, offering even more flexibility for a workshop, storage, or future possibilities. The adjacent lot

Key facts

• Historical fencing
• 0.34 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• DETACHED TWO STORY BUILDING
• ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• BUILDABLE ADJACENT LOT
• NEW COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HISTORICAL FENCING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#304 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 315 students, 81% FRL); Page County Middle (math 36% / reading 60%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 352 students, 70% FRL); Page County High (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 495 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 45% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $250k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $203,848 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Virginia Ave	0.00mi	4/1.5	2,046 (0%)	1mo	$249,900	$122	99
411 Fourth St	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,973 (-4%)	7mo	$285,000	$144	84
307 2nd St	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+6%)	6mo	$239,999	$111	76
518 Second St	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,112 (+3%)	15mo	$305,000	$144	69
114 Second St	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,824 (-11%)	10mo	$262,500	$144	59
406 6th St	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,270 (+11%)	16mo	$287,700	$127	55
803 Denver Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,846 (-10%)	12mo	$239,000	$129	52
713 5th St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-6%)	15mo	$314,900	$164	51
518 Ninth St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,250 (+10%)	11mo	$299,900	$133	46
232 Edgewood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,947 (-5%)	7mo	$390,000	$200	45
125 High Knoll Ter	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,936 (-5%)	13mo	$369,900	$191	43
257 Edgewood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,331 (+14%)	6mo	$335,000	$144	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,254
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,074
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22849

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,038 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $170	+0% $100	+5% $29	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $19	+0% $100	+5% $180	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $163	base $100	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 1997-11-14
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$895/yr (+$75/mo · 77.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #10921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,291

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.38%
• Current HPI: 216.3367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+233.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HRAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $249,900 HRAR
• 1997-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,154 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.