94 N9027

Concho, AZ 85924

$130,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $130/mo
• Annual: $1,555/yr
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.8% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#419 in AZ) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St Johns Unified District (4153) (town): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #34 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 438 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Concho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.