94 N9027 · Concho, AZ 85924

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 36 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 1 bath home nessled on 36.5ac in beautiful Concho. This wonderful home offers the perfect getaway from the hussle and bustle of the big city and those summer temps! A 40ft shipping container for storage that also has all building supplies needed to finish the interior work, handyman special! Great views from the upstairs loft as you over look the entire property. Fenced in area around the home for the dogs. Plenty of room to expand or bring the toys for the weekend and explore the area with multiple sections (640 acres) of State Trust Land nearby. Less than a mile from county maintained roads, easy access! Gravity fed outdoor shower with rainwater catchment. Seller is offering up to $

Key facts

• Fenced in area
• Rainwater catchment
• Upstairs loft

Tags

• 40FT SHIPPING CONTAINER
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• FENCED IN AREA
• GRAVITY FED OUTDOOR SHOWER
• RAINWATER CATCHMENT
• 5500W GENERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Concho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#419 in AZ) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St Johns Unified District (4153) (town): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #34 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 438 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $113,315 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $10,385
• Equity at exit: $44,131

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $43,532
• Equity at exit: $58,453

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85924

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $166	+0% $130	+5% $93	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $85	+0% $130	+5% $174	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $163	base $130	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2025-08-01
   price $130,000
4. 2025-05-01
   price $155,000
5. 2024-10-25
   price $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$502/yr (+$42/mo · 140.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,088
• − Management: −$1,088
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$648
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$156
• After-tax cash flow: $1,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Johns Unified District (4153)
• NCES district ID: 0408080
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,578
• Composite: 46.77/100
• National rank: #2387
• State rank: #34 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Concho

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #27645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,336

Population outlook (Apache County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 70,338 people
• By 2030: 69,279 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 66,449 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 61,904 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 47,639 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 30,279 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Native American 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Apache

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.9% · R 40.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+33.7 2016: D+36.9 2012: D+33.9 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Current HPI: 212.6221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-27.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $130,000 WMMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $130,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $155,000 WMMLS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $180,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $356 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.