2211 Al Ray Rd

Eastover, NC 28312

$185,000B

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 321 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $518/mo
• Annual: $6,215/yr
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#228 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Armstrong Elementary (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #673 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 478 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $185k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.0% in Eastover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.