2211 Al Ray Rd · Eastover, NC 28312

$185,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 321 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

-4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths on a 1AC lot, Quiet Country Living, Ceiling Fans, Large Family Room, Side Deck with Wheel Chair Ramp, Garden Tub, Large Walk in Closets and Recently Replaced A/c.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.0% in Eastover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#228 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Armstrong Elementary (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #673 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 478 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $185k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $133,735
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.10×
• Total profit: $367,878
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,027/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,539

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $570	+0% $518	+5% $466	+10% $413
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $431	+0% $518	+5% $605	+10% $691
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $565	base $518	+0.5pp $470	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1303 Middle Rd Eastover, NC	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,195	$1.13	25d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   price $185,000
3. 2025-06-09
   listed $200,000 Active
4. 2018-08-10
   soldstatus $77,000
5. 2018-08-06
   soldstatus $77,000 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   -4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths on a 1AC lot, Quiet Country Living, Ceiling Fans, Large Family Room, Side Deck with Wheel Chair Ramp, Garden Tub, Large Walk in Closets and Recently Replaced A/c.

6. 2018-04-18
   listed $79,900 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   -4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths on a 1AC lot, Quiet Country Living, Ceiling Fans, Large Family Room, Side Deck with Wheel Chair Ramp, Garden Tub, Large Walk in Closets and Recently Replaced A/c.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,027
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3,429
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$823
• After-tax cash flow: $5,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Eastover

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #10689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+131.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $185,000 TMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $200,000 TMLS
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $77,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-04-18 Listed $79,900 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,027 · +100.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.