Churchill (Pin Oak) Plan

O'Fallon, MO 63368

$85,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,645
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-1,286/mo
• Annual: $-15,431/yr
• Cap rate: 1.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.57%
• DSCR: 0.22
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $87,808

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.5% of price; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen appliances — Significant wear and tear
• Major: bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major: exterior paint — Peeling and worn
• Major: flooring — Worn and outdated
• Major: interior paint — Significant wear