Churchill (Pin Oak) Plan · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$85,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 238 Days on market

Fair condition $630/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Premier Community * * * Pickleball courts; corn hole; basketball courts; dog park; walking trail; second municipal grade playground! Located along Interstates 64 and 70, and just 40 minutes west of St. Louis in Charles County, Pin Oak Pointe is a lovely, relaxed community with easy convenience to the City of St. Charles, shopping, schools, and major employers like Mastercard, Citi, SAK Construction and a host of other companies. O'Fallon is a great place to live with its close proximity to enriching culture and exciting nightlife, including restaurants, dinner theater and strolling along the Missouri River. It is also a 30-minute drive to Missouri Weinstrasse, Missouri's wine country road, and explore charming towns, award winning wineries and vineyard tours. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Dog Park, Pavillion, Picnic Area, Pickleball, Playground, Shuffleboard, and Walking/Nature Trails. Stop by today and visit our available homesites!

Key facts

• Dog park
• Corn hole
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• CORN HOLE
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• DOG PARK
• WALKING TRAIL
• MUNICIPAL GRADE PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $85,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.5% of price; HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $75,675 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.57%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 English Ivy	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (+1%)	10mo	$379,000	$293	72
8 Marian Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,286 (+0%)	11mo	$285,000	$222	64
327 Newbridge Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	19mo	$319,000	$234	62
68 Mora Blvd Unit 432-401	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	14mo	$340,570	$250	57
70 Mora Blvd Unit 432-402	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	14mo	$331,194	$243	57
52 Mora Blvd Unit 424-403	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	16mo	$333,280	$245	57
38 Mora Blvd Unit 420-401	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	17mo	$340,691	$250	57
60 Mora Blvd Unit 428-402	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,363 (+6%)	19mo	$354,002	$260	54
2355 Post Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+1%)	14mo	$264,900	$204	53
309 Dalriada Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	16mo	$464,254	$327	43
510 Ironwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+10%)	8mo	$315,000	$223	41
35 Heatherwood Ct	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,452 (+13%)	11mo	$325,000	$224	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-134,979
• Equity at exit: $46,759

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.64×
• Total profit: $-231,985
• Equity at exit: $27,114

Cash invested: $87,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,704/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-1,286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,541

Max offer price $127,522

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,400
• Closing costs: $9,408
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.5	1214	$1,625	$1.34	11d	1	0.21mi
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	3d	1	0.21mi
13300 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,450	$1.42	8d	1	0.31mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.35mi
333 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	44d	1	0.36mi
9201 Spring Creek Ln Unit 9201 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,600	$1.58	4d	1	0.37mi
9200 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	0.37mi
6303 Spring River Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,697	$1.67	44d	1	0.57mi
4103 Spring River Dr Unit 4103 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	16d	1	0.59mi
214 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	18d	1	0.64mi
234 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.64mi
284 Stonewall Creek Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	44d	1	0.89mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,228	$2.22	2d	16	0.90mi
55 Timber Oaks Trl O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	0.93mi
710 Alban Aly Unit O O'Fallon, MO	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,400	$1.57	2d	1	0.99mi
102 Ripple creek Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1599	$2,600	$1.63	2d	4	1.07mi
1007 Carpathian Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1524	$2,191	$1.44	8d	1	1.30mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,781	$1.90	4d	1	1.37mi
100 Big River Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1349	$2,717	$2.01	44d	1	1.39mi
4133 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	44d	1	1.44mi
1124 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	1.45mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	15d	1	1.46mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	11d	1	1.46mi
5123 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	8d	1	1.46mi
603 Country Village Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	11d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,995 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,995 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,995 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,995 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,995 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,995 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,995 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,995 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,995 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,995 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,995 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,995 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,995 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,995 Active 220 DOM
15. 2025-10-23
    listed $85,995 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Premier Community * * * Pickleball courts; corn hole; basketball courts; dog park; walking trail; second municipal grade playground! Located along Interstates 64 and 70, and just 40 minutes west of St. Louis in Charles County, Pin Oak Pointe is a lovely, relaxed community with easy convenience to the City of St. Charles, shopping, schools, and major employers like Mastercard, Citi, SAK Construction and a host of other companies. O'Fallon is a great place to live with its close proximity to enriching culture and exciting nightlife, including restaurants, dinner theater and strolling along the Missouri River. It is also a 30-minute drive to Missouri Weinstrasse, Missouri's wine country road, and explore charming towns, award winning wineries and vineyard tours. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Dog Park, Pavillion, Picnic Area, Pickleball, Playground, Shuffleboard, and Walking/Nature Trails. Stop by today and visit our available homesites!

16. 2025-07-31
    listed $85,995 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Premier Community * * * Pickleball courts; corn hole; basketball courts; dog park; walking trail; second municipal grade playground! Located along Interstates 64 and 70, and just 40 minutes west of St. Louis in Charles County, Pin Oak Pointe is a lovely, relaxed community with easy convenience to the City of St. Charles, shopping, schools, and major employers like Mastercard, Citi, SAK Construction and a host of other companies. O'Fallon is a great place to live with its close proximity to enriching culture and exciting nightlife, including restaurants, dinner theater and strolling along the Missouri River. It is also a 30-minute drive to Missouri Weinstrasse, Missouri's wine country road, and explore charming towns, award winning wineries and vineyard tours. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Dog Park, Pavillion, Picnic Area, Pickleball, Playground, Shuffleboard, and Walking/Nature Trails. Stop by today and visit our available homesites!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,566
• − Property taxes: −$4,704
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$9,123
• Taxable loss: −$21,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, including kitchen and bathroom updates, exterior paint, and landscaping, to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Significant wear and tear
• Major bathroom fixtures — Worn and outdated
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and worn
• Major flooring — Worn and outdated
• Major interior paint — Significant wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters
• Both bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms will attract more buyers and renters
• Both exterior paint and landscaping — Fresh paint and landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Significant wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — Modern kitchen will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — Upgraded bathrooms will attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both exterior paint and landscaping — Fresh paint and landscaping will improve curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-23 Listed $85,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Listed $85,995 Zillow