858 Hoke Ogden Rd,

Odum, GA 31555

$172,500D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-599/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-599/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#400 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #68 of 174 in GA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Odum Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #185 of 1,228 statewide, top 16%, 405 students, 75% FRL); Martha Puckett Middle School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #249 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 561 students, 75% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #74 of 424 statewide, top 18%, 1,467 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $172k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Odum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.