858 Hoke Ogden Rd, · Odum, GA 31555

$172,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2006 5.06 ac lot $120/sqft · 38% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special 5+ Acres 5+ private acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong upside potential. This as-is property features a spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,000 sq ft, a metal roof, and newer HVAC already in place. A 1,200 sq ft bunkhouse (2 bed/1 bath) and a 600 sq ft workshop add additional value and possibilities for guests, rental income, or workspace. The property has mature pines and pecan trees provide privacy and excellent hunting opportunities. Seller financing available-schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• 200 sq ft bunkhouse
• Metal roof
• 600 sq ft workshop

Tags

• 5 PRIVATE ACRES
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• 200 SQ FT BUNKHOUSE
• 600 SQ FT WORKSHOP
• MATURE PINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-599/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Odum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#400 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #68 of 174 in GA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $172k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,007 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $580,762
• List price: $172,500
• Delta: -70.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $90,718
• Equity at exit: $155,402

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $269,547
• Equity at exit: $335,130

Cash invested: $48,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31555

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $163,682

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-1	+0% $-50	+5% $-99	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-101	+0% $-50	+5% $1	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-6	base $-50	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,125
• Closing costs: $5,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $172,500 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,500 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,500 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,500 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,500 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $172,500 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,500 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,500 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,500 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $172,500 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,500 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $172,500 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,500 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,500 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,500 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $172,500 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $180,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Investor Special 5+ Acres 5+ private acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong upside potential. This as-is property features a spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,000 sq ft, a metal roof, and newer HVAC already in place. A 1,200 sq ft bunkhouse (2 bed/1 bath) and a 600 sq ft workshop add additional value and possibilities for guests, rental income, or workspace. The property has mature pines and pecan trees provide privacy and excellent hunting opportunities. Seller financing available-schedule your showing today.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $190,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Investor Special 5+ Acres 5+ private acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong upside potential. This as-is property features a spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,000 sq ft, a metal roof, and newer HVAC already in place. A 1,200 sq ft bunkhouse (2 bed/1 bath) and a 600 sq ft workshop add additional value and possibilities for guests, rental income, or workspace. The property has mature pines and pecan trees provide privacy and excellent hunting opportunities. Seller financing available-schedule your showing today.

19. 2026-03-01
    listed $209,900 New 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Investor Special 5+ Acres 5+ private acres offering privacy, flexibility, and strong upside potential. This as-is property features a spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home with over 3,000 sq ft, a metal roof, and newer HVAC already in place. A 1,200 sq ft bunkhouse (2 bed/1 bath) and a 600 sq ft workshop add additional value and possibilities for guests, rental income, or workspace. The property has mature pines and pecan trees provide privacy and excellent hunting opportunities. Seller financing available-schedule your showing today.

20. 2026-02-15
    historical
21. 2026-02-15
    historical
22. 2026-01-27
    price $209,900
23. 2026-01-27
    price $209,900
24. 2025-12-05
    price $219,900
25. 2025-11-23
    price $224,900
26. 2025-10-31
    price $229,900
27. 2025-10-09
    price $239,900
28. 2025-09-19
    price $249,900
29. 2025-09-12
    price $270,000
30. 2025-08-29
    price $275,000
31. 2025-08-15
    listed $219,900 Active
32. 2025-08-15
    listed $280,000 New
33. 2025-07-28
    historical
34. 2025-07-28
    historical
35. 2025-07-28
    historical
36. 2025-07-28
    historical
37. 2025-07-28
    historical
38. 2025-01-29
    listed $395,000
39. 2025-01-29
    listed $395,000
40. 2025-01-29
    listed $395,000
41. 2025-01-29
    listed $395,000
42. 2025-01-27
    listed $395,000 New
43. 2022-10-17
    soldstatus $115,000
44. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold
45. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus $115,000
46. 2022-09-19
    status Under Contract
47. 2022-09-01
    listed $128,500
48. 2022-06-18
    price $128,500
49. 2022-06-01
    price $134,900
50. 2022-05-05
    listed $135,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,663
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$5,018
• Taxable loss: −$3,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$875
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 1305550
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,918
• Composite: 29.3/100
• National rank: #6554
• State rank: #68 of 174 in GA

Livability — Odum

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #19789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,126

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,891 people
• By 2030: 28,388 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 27,396 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 26,135 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 23,253 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 19,481 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 20.0% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+48.3 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.81%
• Current HPI: 245.08
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $190,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $209,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $219,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $224,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $270,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $219,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $395,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $395,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $395,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $395,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $395,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 HABR
• 2022-10-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GAMLS
• 2022-09-19 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $128,500 HABR
• 2022-06-18 Price Changed $128,500 GAMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $134,900 GAMLS
• 2022-05-05 Listed $135,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.