57 Kellogg Rd

Stillwater, NY 12170

$322,222D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2012 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,479/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,690
• Tax + insurance: −$517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,981/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $90,222

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.1% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#509 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 32% FRL); Stillwater Middle School High School (math 55% / reading 62%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $322k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.