57 Kellogg Rd · Stillwater, NY 12170

$322,222

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2012 0.52 ac lot Est $262k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy summer in this refreshing newer one-level home, set on one of the brightest and sunniest homesites in the area. The owners are moving south and are currently packing, and they have priced the home aggressively for a quick sale. The kitchen overlooks the lovely backyard, and the home is located on a quiet country street that is walkable to the village while still offering a more private setting. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home, separate from the main living areas for added privacy. The basement is currently being repaired and offers great potential for additional living space, a home office, or easy access to the backyard. Market 32, CVS, and many other

Key facts

• Quiet country street
• Lovely backyard
• Newer one-level home

Tags

• NEWER ONE-LEVEL HOME
• LOVELY BACKYARD
• QUIET COUNTRY STREET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Off-street parking with room for a total of 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; 150' frontage lot
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Below-grade finished area (basement) present
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Exterior lighting; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Other built-in appliance
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first level, one on the second level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Paddle fans; Solid surface counters; Built-in features; Sliding doors; Finished full basement with sump pump; One fireplace in the living room; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#509 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 32% FRL); Stillwater Middle School High School (math 55% / reading 62%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $322k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,923 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Dorchester Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$163	90
112 S Gurba Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+9%)	7mo	$320,000	$203	74
120 S Gurba Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+11%)	6mo	$397,000	$249	71
29 Railroad Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,535 (+7%)	21mo	$264,000	$172	63
21 High St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,526 (+6%)	4mo	$278,100	$182	63
444 Hudson Ave	0.40mi	3/3.0	1,456 (+1%)	18mo	$418,000	$287	61
565 Hudson Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-10%)	15mo	$325,000	$252	60
43 Kellogg Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,282 (-11%)	22mo	$270,000	$211	53
14 Castle Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+11%)	17mo	$235,000	$147	51
9 New Bridge Dr	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	22mo	$257,000	$161	48
331 Hudson Ave	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,455 (+1%)	18mo	$118,000	$81	44
337 Hudson Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	22mo	$212,000	$133	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $159,695
• Equity at exit: $290,283

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $482,767
• Equity at exit: $626,006

Cash invested: $90,222 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12170

• Home prices YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,690
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,596/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $278,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-157	+0% $-248	+5% $-340	+10% $-431
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-346	+0% $-248	+5% $-150	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-166	base $-248	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,556
• Closing costs: $9,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $322,222 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,222 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $322,222 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $322,222 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,222 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $322,222 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $322,222 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-05
   listed $322,222 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,596 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,021 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,049
• − Property taxes: −$4,596
• − Insurance: −$1,611
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,374
• Taxable loss: −$8,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,073
• After-tax cash flow: $-907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628110
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 51.51/100
• National rank: #1721
• State rank: #238 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stillwater

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #8993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,225

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.13%
• Current HPI: 363.0428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+279.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $322,222 Global MLS
• 2013-09-08 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2013-03-08 Listed $329,900 Global MLS
• 1995-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,596 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.