12250 Tierra Bella Dr

El Paso, TX 79938

$185,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,693/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-9/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-9/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Paso Del Norte Fine Arts Academy (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 1,017 students, 76% FRL); Spec Rafael Hernando Middle (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 752 students, 72% FRL); El Dorado H S (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,245 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.