12250 Tierra Bella Dr · El Paso, TX 79938

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 4,961 sqft lot Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This East El Paso home features several recent updates, including a new water heater installed in 2025, a dedicated mini-split system added to the converted garage in 2024, two new rear-facing windows, and refrigerated HVAC installed in 2015. The converted garage provides valuable flex space that can be used as a home office, gym, playroom, or additional living area. Conveniently located near Loop 375, Walmart, shopping, dining, Paso del Norte Elementary School, and El Dorado High School, this home offers practical updates and easy access to everyday amenities.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Refrigerated hvac
• Flex space

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• DEDICATED MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• REFRIGERATED HVAC
• FLEX SPACE
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; Pitched shingle roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Built recently (new construction)
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Back yard access; Open patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; See remarks
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air heating; Refrigerated cooling; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds; See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-9/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Paso Del Norte Fine Arts Academy (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 1,017 students, 76% FRL); Spec Rafael Hernando Middle (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 752 students, 72% FRL); El Dorado H S (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,245 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,251 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,333
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2488 Tierra Rica Way	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,270 (+4%)	8mo	$189,500	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-31,547
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-33,663
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79938

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,487/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,693

Max offer price $184,875

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $52	+0% $-1	+5% $-53	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-68	+0% $-1	+5% $66	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $46	base $-1	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12348 Tierra Humeda Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,395	$1.03	45d	1	0.42mi
2304 Tierra Serena Rd El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,390	$1.39	5d	1	0.43mi
12483 Tierra Dulce Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,700	$1.57	16d	1	0.46mi
12489 Tierra Bella Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,425	$1.07	25d	1	0.49mi
12119 Tower Hill Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1331	$1,875	$1.41	45d	1	0.57mi
12115 Royal Woods Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,750	$1.48	16d	1	0.59mi
2325 Tierra Azul Way El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.67mi
12272 Tierra Pez Way El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.72mi
12130 Pebble Hills Blvd El Paso, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	899	$1,720	$1.91	21d	15	0.76mi
12425 Red Sun Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,625	$1.16	5d	1	0.78mi
11895 David Forti Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,550	$1.16	16d	1	0.80mi
12008 Castle Woods Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,495	$1.25	25d	1	0.80mi
11831 Vere Leasure Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,595	$1.40	13d	1	0.89mi
11831 Vere Leasure Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,595	$1.40	16d	1	0.89mi
11956 Waterside Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,350	$1.24	16d	1	0.89mi
2801 N Zaragoza Rd El Paso, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$1,852	$2.19	4d	3	0.91mi
11924 Kings Guard Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	16d	1	0.99mi
12357 Tierra Inca Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,395	$1.28	25d	1	1.00mi
3286 Sal Berroteran Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	3.0	1255	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	1.01mi
3549 Mike Godwin Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,595	$1.10	45d	1	1.01mi
12273 Costa Brava El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,700	$1.14	45d	1	1.02mi
11832 Balladeer Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,395	$1.26	5d	1	1.29mi
3616 Dominican St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,350	$1.05	45d	1	1.29mi
13985 Sandy Rock Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,550	$1.20	25d	1	1.38mi
3404 Rosinie Rose Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,600	$1.25	5d	1	1.41mi
11764 Balladeer Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,595	$1.09	5d	1	1.42mi
13956 Vaquero Rock Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	884	$1,350	$1.53	25d	1	1.43mi
12313 Tierra Arena Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	3.0	1122	$1,445	$1.29	5d	1	1.45mi
11600 Edward James Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,650	$1.39	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 567-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,487 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,487 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,487
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$3,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99,621
• Household income: $77,272
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 900.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 42% White 10% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.39%
• Current HPI: 207.2031
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $185,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,487 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.