3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,031/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$131
Tax + insurance
−$42
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$217
Net cashflow
$643/mo
Annual
$7,713/yr
Cap rate
37.27%
Cash-on-cash
110.62%
DSCR
5.92
1% rule
4.14%
Cash to close
$6,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($172 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Lincoln El Sch (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,295 of 1,518 statewide, top 86%, 370 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 37.3% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MNY9FR5DSY9HRN
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29