4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,330 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Under Contract
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,351/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$591
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$914
Net cashflow
$801/mo
Annual
$9,609/yr
Cap rate
8.76%
Cash-on-cash
8.80%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$109,200
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $400/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Fair Haven School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #529 of 553 statewide, top 97%, 682 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 66% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $75k; list at $390k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,351/mo this rent would consume 108% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 2664% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29