3834 Cranes Rd

Addison, NY 14801

$178,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $239/mo
• Annual: $2,870/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#768 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Addison Central School District (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #563 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.