3834 Cranes Rd · Addison, NY 14801

$178,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1990 0.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

200 ft of lake frontage. Well maintained year round home. Nice large rooms. Finished lower level. Wonderful matured "nature landscaped" yard. Freestanding outdoor fireplace. Deck with "look out" perch, open deck, screened porch. This home is part of the 100% Money Back Guarantee Program, certain terms & conditions apply.

Key facts

• Lake frontage
• Huge living room
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• LAKE FRONTAGE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK OUT BASEMENT
• WRAP AROUND DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing structure; Rectangular, wooded lot; Private road frontage; 250 feet of lake frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Beach access to lake; Waterfront on Goodhue Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Electric heating; Space heater
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Second kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#768 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Addison Central School District (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #563 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $175,330 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $112,228
• Equity at exit: $160,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $318,616
• Equity at exit: $345,815

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14801

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,112/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,604

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $178,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $178,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $178,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 615-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 571-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $178,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$3,112
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $66
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16
• After-tax cash flow: $2,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Addison Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,519
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6720
• State rank: #563 of 590 in NY

Livability — Addison

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #768
• US rank: #14729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,415

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Polish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.75%
• Current HPI: 332.2296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $178,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2020-03-24 Sold (MLS) $125,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-01-24 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,112 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.