449 Waterloo Geneva Rd

Geneva, NY 13165

$159,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 1936 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $51/mo
• Annual: $617/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($617/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (2.8% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in NY, #2,760 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Waterloo Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #525 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Skoi-Yase School (349 students, 59% FRL); Waterloo Middle School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #656 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 338 students, 63% FRL); Waterloo High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 438 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Waterloo Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Geneva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.