449 Waterloo Geneva Rd · Geneva, NY 13165

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1936 0.31 ac lot Est $257k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 449 Waterloo Geneva Road in Waterloo! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers timeless character and functional space throughout. Step inside to find beautiful natural hardwood floors that add warmth and charm to the main living areas. The bright morning room is the perfect spot to enjoy your coffee or unwind at the end of the day. The eat-in kitchen provides plenty of space for everyday meals and gatherings. Upstairs, you’ll find comfortable bedrooms and access to a full walk-up attic—ideal for storage or potential future expansion. Outside, the property features a detached garage and a large shed, offering ample space for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. Conv

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Bright morning room
• Large shed

Tags

• NATURAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRIGHT MORNING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($617/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.0% in Geneva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in NY, #2,760 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Waterloo Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #525 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Skoi-Yase School (349 students, 59% FRL); Waterloo Middle School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #656 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 338 students, 63% FRL); Waterloo High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 438 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Waterloo Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,399 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.38%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,620
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3057 Seneca Blvd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,350 (-4%)	3mo	$210,000	$156	66
2988 East Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,216 (-14%)	10mo	$221,000	$182	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,568
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,161
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13165

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,253/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $97	+0% $51	+5% $6	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-10	+0% $51	+5% $113	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $92	base $51	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-19
   listed $159,900 Active
4. 2003-03-31
   soldstatus $80,000
5. 2002-02-05
   soldstatus $78,000
6. 1993-08-17
   soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,253 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,253 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,253
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterloo Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600014
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,726
• Composite: 34.16/100
• National rank: #5278
• State rank: #525 of 590 in NY

Livability — Geneva

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #2760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,429

Population outlook (Seneca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,457 people
• By 2030: 32,540 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 30,680 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 28,875 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 24,757 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 19,591 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seneca

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+12.1 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.17%
• Current HPI: 257.272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+201.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-05 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,253 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.