544 Scott St

Asherton, TX 78827

$150,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,161 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 395 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-28/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-28/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,303 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carrizo Springs El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 598 students, 81% FRL); Carrizo Springs Int (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 452 students, 79% FRL); Carrizo Springs H S (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 588 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.