544 Scott St · Asherton, TX 78827

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 395 Days on market

Built 1988 1.00 ac lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resource eligible

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water and sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Slab entry/foundation
• Construction: Approximately 34 years old; Wood shingle/shake roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Recent rehab; North front exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (16 x 11); Stove/Range; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and ceiling fan (14 x 18); Bedroom 2 (10 x 11); Bedroom 3 (10 x 9); Bedroom 4 (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Ceramic tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only (9 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Living/Dining room combination; Separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar; Two living areas; Utility room inside; All bedrooms downstairs; Laundry on main level; Walk-in closets; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer connections; Laundry room on main level; Utility room (11 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-28/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,303 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carrizo Springs El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 598 students, 81% FRL); Carrizo Springs Int (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 452 students, 79% FRL); Carrizo Springs H S (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 588 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 395 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,836 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 395 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,819
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
949 Scott St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-3%)	19mo	$375,000	$179	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,947
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $64,153
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78827

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,336/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $149,592

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $40	+0% $-2	+5% $-45	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-54	+0% $-2	+5% $50	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $36	base $-2	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 395 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 394 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 392 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 391 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 390 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 389 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 388 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 386 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 385 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $150,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 382 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 381 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 380 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $150,000 Active 372 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $150,000
19. 2026-05-19
    status Back on Market
20. 2023-07-21
    historical
21. 2022-07-25
    listed $225,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,336 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,336
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Asherton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1303
• US rank: #22596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asherton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 749

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 56% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 11% English-only · Spanish 89%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-07-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-07-25 Listed $225,000 LERA

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,336 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.