177 W 83rd St Unit 4S

New York, NY 10024

$869,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1900 · Condo · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,557
• Tax + insurance: −$1,448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,882
• Net cashflow: $1,075/mo
• Annual: $12,901/yr
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $243,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $869k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $869k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($765k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $765k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $648k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $243k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,963/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($182k/yr) (locally 3388% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.