3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,066 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,845/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$387
Net cashflow
$504/mo
Annual
$6,047/yr
Cap rate
11.13%
Cash-on-cash
17.28%
DSCR
1.77
1% rule
1.48%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary (math 60% / reading 55%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 446 students, 57% FRL); Jean Ribault Middle School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 679 students, 78% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MQHS6VD0ZW1Q4A
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29