16420 Sandy Shore Dr

Westlake, FL 33470

$570,000F

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,110 sqft · Built 2020 · Land · Active · 260 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax + insurance: −$361
• HOA: −$195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$768
• Net cashflow: $-657/mo
• Annual: $-7,883/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $159,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $570k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (35.9% below list).
• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $366k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxahatchee Groves Elementary (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 653 students, 53% FRL); Osceola Creek Middle School (math 53% / reading 54%, grade C+, #205 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 835 students, 41% FRL); Seminole Ridge Community High School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,262 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.