16420 Sandy Shore Dr · Westlake, FL 33470

$570,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,110 sqft · Land · 260 Days on market

Built 2020 5,462 sqft lot $195/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2.3% ASSUMABLE MORTGAGE available. the attached chart shows that with 10% down a buyer can save thousands ! The chart is attached to verify info from the lender. 2 Primary Suites, 1 downstairs and 1 upstairs, Open concept floor plan with lots of natural light, spacious kitchen with quartz counters and large island. 3 full baths and 1 half bath. Hurricane impact windows. Access to Adventure Park with a lagoon pool and a 3 story waterslide and over the top amenities; a dog park, fitness center, basketball, pickleball, and just about anything you can think of. Close to A Rated Schools, and new shopping & dining venues.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Lagoon pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• LAGOON POOL
• 3 STORY WATERSLIDE
• DOG PARK
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association amenities include: swimming pool, clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, basketball court, dog park, jogging path/trails, sidewalks, picnic areas, business center, management, on-site manager, street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Gated community without guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; Resale property; Two stories; Entry level living area; South-facing
• Construction: CBS construction; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Open patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms and one half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Drapes and sliding window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-657 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $454k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $366k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxahatchee Groves Elementary (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 653 students, 53% FRL); Osceola Creek Middle School (math 53% / reading 54%, grade C+, #205 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 835 students, 41% FRL); Seminole Ridge Community High School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,262 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,639 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-116,362
• Equity at exit: $84,989

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-74,453
• Equity at exit: $49,283

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33470

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$768
• Net cashflow: $-657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,488

Max offer price $453,950

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $570,000 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $570,000 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $570,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $570,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 255 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $570,000 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $570,000 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $570,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $570,000 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $570,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $570,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-04-20
    price $570,000
13. 2026-04-20
    status Active
14. 2026-02-25
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-02-13
    status Active
16. 2026-02-13
    historical
17. 2025-10-01
    listed $575,000 Active
18. 2025-08-10
    historical
19. 2025-04-23
    listed $575,000 Active
20. 2025-03-02
    historical
21. 2024-06-12
    price $609,900
22. 2024-05-02
    price $639,999
23. 2024-04-04
    price $654,999
24. 2024-02-23
    listed $659,999 Active
25. 2024-02-12
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,731 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,245/yr (+$270/mo · 218.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,510
• − Management: −$3,510
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable loss: −$18,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Westlake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westlake, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,610
• Household income: $122,163
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 43.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 16% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.68%
• Current HPI: 410.2689
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.68%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $570,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-25 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $575,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-10 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $575,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-02 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $609,900 Beaches MLS
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $639,999 Beaches MLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $654,999 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $659,999 Beaches MLS
• 2024-02-12 Coming Soon — Beaches MLS