411 Brighton Ave

Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL 32073

$145,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,309/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $51/mo
• Annual: $613/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($613/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W E Cherry Elementary School (math 58% / reading 57%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 641 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park Junior High School (math 38% / reading 45%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 744 students, 100% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.