1545 Indian Neck Ln

Peconic, NY 11958

$1,349,000B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,300 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,074
• Tax + insurance: −$1,619
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,255
• Net cashflow: $7,315/mo
• Annual: $87,778/yr
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.24%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $377,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($88k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.35M).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.33M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.33M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,144 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.16M; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.