409 Davenport St

Shelby, IA 51570

$17,500D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $804/mo
• Annual: $9,651/yr
• Cap rate: 61.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 196.97%
• DSCR: 9.76
• 1% rule: 7.02%
• Cash to close: $4,900

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#495 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ahstw Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #76 of 289 in IA (top 26%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Ahstw Primary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 296 students, 40% FRL); Ahstw Intermediate School (math 72% / reading 71%, grade A, #106 of 246 statewide, top 44%, 262 students, 41% FRL); Ahstw High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #34 of 336 statewide, top 14%, 218 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.