409 Davenport St · Shelby, IA 51570

$17,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot $12/sqft · 89% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make this your summer project! Corner lot with space to add a garage and plan out a new home. Investors special.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACE TO ADD A GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#495 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ahstw Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #76 of 289 in IA (top 26%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Ahstw Primary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 296 students, 40% FRL); Ahstw Intermediate School (math 72% / reading 71%, grade A, #106 of 246 statewide, top 44%, 262 students, 41% FRL); Ahstw High School (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A-, #34 of 336 statewide, top 14%, 218 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $16,975 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 61.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 196.97%
• DSCR: 9.76
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,208
• List price: $17,500
• Delta: -89.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Davenport St	0.10mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,287 (-9%)	7mo	$27,500	$21	67
406 Davenport St	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,528 (+8%)	21mo	$277,750	$182	56
507 Spring St	0.30mi	4/1.0	1,612 (+14%)	23mo	$199,900	$124	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.89×
• Total profit: $48,437
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.11×
• Total profit: $108,329
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51570

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $211

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $862	-5% $809	+0% $804	+5% $799	+10% $794
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $756	+0% $804	+5% $853	+10% $901
Rate	-1.0pp $813	-0.5pp $809	base $804	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Make this your summer project! Corner lot with space to add a garage and plan out a new home. Investors special.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Make this your summer project! Corner lot with space to add a garage and plan out a new home. Investors special.

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $17,500 Active 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Make this your summer project! Corner lot with space to add a garage and plan out a new home. Investors special.

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $17,500 Active 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Make this your summer project! Corner lot with space to add a garage and plan out a new home. Investors special.

5. 2025-11-24
   soldstatus $15,000 Closed
6. 2025-11-11
   status Pending
7. 2025-11-03
   listed $15,000 Active
8. 2025-10-11
   listed $15,000 Active
9. 2025-10-10
   listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $814 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $814 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$814
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $10,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,400
• After-tax cash flow: $7,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ahstw Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1904080
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,045
• Composite: 63.31/100
• National rank: #628
• State rank: #76 of 289 in IA

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #11009

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelby, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,131

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,637 people
• By 2030: 11,472 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 11,146 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 10,791 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 10,601 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 10,338 · -11.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.93%
• Current HPI: 174.4588
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — IAR
• 2026-05-08 Pending — SWIAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $17,500 SWIAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $17,500 IAR
• 2025-11-24 Sold (MLS) $15,000 SWIAR
• 2025-11-11 Pending — SWIAR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $15,000 SWIAR
• 2025-10-11 Listed $15,000 IAR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $15,000 SWIAR

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $814 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.