3880 Lockport Olcott

Newfane, NY 14094

$44,555B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,142/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$234
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $595/mo
• Annual: $7,135/yr
• Cap rate: 22.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.19%
• DSCR: 3.54
• 1% rule: 2.56%
• Cash to close: $12,475

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newfane Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #257 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newfane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 450 students, 46% FRL); Newfane Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 343 students, 50% FRL); Newfane Senior High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 435 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.