3880 Lockport Olcott · Newfane, NY 14094

$44,555

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1988 435 sqft lot Est $55k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well maintained mobile home in Ridgeview 55+ Community. This 2 bedroom home boasts a large closet in the master bedroom, kitchen includes newer countertop, stove/gas, refrigerator and pantry. Open carpeted living area with built in china cabinet. Home is air conditioned and has newer windows. Garage has a concrete floor with plenty of space for work area or storage. Located behind the garage but accessed from the home as well as the garage is a three season room with gas fireplace. Directly behind that is a covered 11x14 patio room with lattice walls. Super cute well maintained and fenced yard with shed that leads to the remaining yard.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1988
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $579

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story; Single wide mobile home (Schult); Existing/resale condition; Private road frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newfane Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #257 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $44,555

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.19%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,516
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3880 Lockport Olcott Rd #1	0.08mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	14mo	$58,000	$59	74
3902 Lockport Olcott Rd #69	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+8%)	8mo	$45,000	$45	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $31,442
• Equity at exit: $6,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $79,436
• Equity at exit: $3,852

Cash invested: $12,475 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$234
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $44,555

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $610	+0% $595	+5% $579	+10% $564
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $549	+0% $595	+5% $640	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $606	base $595	+0.5pp $583	+1.0pp $571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,139
• Closing costs: $1,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,555 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 411-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $44,555 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,496
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,296
• Taxable income: $6,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,640
• After-tax cash flow: $5,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newfane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620760
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,029
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1911
• State rank: #257 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newfane

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #11907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+78.9% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $44,555 WNYREIS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $36,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-05-05 Listed $36,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-03-01 Sold (MLS) $10,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-03-01 Sold (MLS) $10,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-02-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-02-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-01-14 Listed $14,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-01-14 Listed $14,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-28 Sold (MLS) $19,500 WNYREIS
• 2020-03-05 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-01-31 Price Changed $20,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-10-21 Listed $21,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-04-01 Sold (MLS) $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-03-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-02-06 Listed $19,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-10-13 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS