1048 Pine Creek Dr

Nolensville, TN 37014

$1,000,000D

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,860 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax + insurance: −$694
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-903/mo
• Annual: $-10,841/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $280,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath other listed at $1.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-903 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $840k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (35.0% below list).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($940k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $650k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: College Grove Elementary (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #37 of 952 statewide, top 4%, 768 students, 0% FRL); Spring Station Middle School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade D, #30 of 333 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.