1048 Pine Creek Dr · Nolensville, TN 37014

$1,000,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,860 sqft · Other public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2022 0.25 ac lot $259/sqft · at area comps Est $963k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Pine Creek subdivision in Arrington—just minutes from Arrington Vineyards, Delvin Farms, and approximately 20 minutes to downtown Franklin—this 5-bedroom, 4.5-bath Craftsman Home offers a refined balance of space, function, and lifestyle in one of Williamson County’s most sought-after areas. ***A covered front porch with tongue and groove ceilings and double entry doors creates a warm, welcoming first impression. Inside, natural light fills an open, thoughtfully designed layout anchored by a shiplap fireplace, beam-accented dining space, and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring a large island, apron-front sink, and walk-in pantry—designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. A private office with French doors adds flexibility without sacrificing style. ***The main-level primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a soaking tub, oversized walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a custom walk-in closet. Upstairs, a light-filled bonus room offers generous space for gathering, recreation, or quiet retreat. Four additional bedrooms include a private en suite—ideal for guests or multigenerational living—a Jack and Jill layout, and an additional bedroom with access to a full bath, all with custom closet built-ins throughout. ***Step outside to a covered back porch with tongue and groove ceilings and an outdoor fireplace, overlooking a fenced backyard with newly planted privacy trees that will continue to mature over time—creating an increasingly private setting. The space is designed for relaxed evenings, hosting, and enjoying the outdoors year-round. ***Residents of Pine Creek enjoy walking trails, sidewalks, and a stocked fishing pond with a covered dock and water feature—offering a lifestyle that feels removed while remaining conveniently connected to Franklin and beyond. ***This is where thoughtful design meets the lifestyle buyers are moving here to find.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large island
• Shiplap fireplace

Tags

• PINE CREEK SUBDIVISION
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SHIPLAP FIREPLACE
• BEAM ACCENTED DINING SPACE
• BEAUTIFULLY APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath other listed at $1.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-903 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $840k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $650k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: College Grove Elementary (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #37 of 952 statewide, top 4%, 768 students, 0% FRL); Spring Station Middle School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade D, #30 of 333 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 0% FRL); Summit High School (math 9% / reading 62%, grade F, #38 of 332 statewide, top 11%, 1,708 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($940k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $650,000 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.87%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $963,217
• List price: $1,000,000
• Delta: 3.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $263,282
• Equity at exit: $663,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $811,088
• Equity at exit: $1,233,856

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37014

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,332/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,644

Max offer price $840,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-337	-5% $-620	+0% $-903	+5% $-1,186	+10% $-1,470
Rent	-10% $-1,417	-5% $-1,160	+0% $-903	+5% $-647	+10% $-390
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-649	base $-903	+0.5pp $-1,163	+1.0pp $-1,426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Ashby Valley Ln Arrington, TN	4.0	4.5	4282	$6,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    listed $1,000,000 Active 1964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1964 chars)

    Located in the Pine Creek subdivision in Arrington—just minutes from Arrington Vineyards, Delvin Farms, and approximately 20 minutes to downtown Franklin—this 5-bedroom, 4.5-bath Craftsman Home offers a refined balance of space, function, and lifestyle in one of Williamson County’s most sought-after areas. ***A covered front porch with tongue and groove ceilings and double entry doors creates a warm, welcoming first impression. Inside, natural light fills an open, thoughtfully designed layout anchored by a shiplap fireplace, beam-accented dining space, and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring a large island, apron-front sink, and walk-in pantry—designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. A private office with French doors adds flexibility without sacrificing style. ***The main-level primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a soaking tub, oversized walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a custom walk-in closet. Upstairs, a light-filled bonus room offers generous space for gathering, recreation, or quiet retreat. Four additional bedrooms include a private en suite—ideal for guests or multigenerational living—a Jack and Jill layout, and an additional bedroom with access to a full bath, all with custom closet built-ins throughout. ***Step outside to a covered back porch with tongue and groove ceilings and an outdoor fireplace, overlooking a fenced backyard with newly planted privacy trees that will continue to mature over time—creating an increasingly private setting. The space is designed for relaxed evenings, hosting, and enjoying the outdoors year-round. ***Residents of Pine Creek enjoy walking trails, sidewalks, and a stocked fishing pond with a covered dock and water feature—offering a lifestyle that feels removed while remaining conveniently connected to Franklin and beyond. ***This is where thoughtful design meets the lifestyle buyers are moving here to find.

15. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $914,990 Closed 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This listing is our Wentworth Craftsman floorplan featuring Double front doors and huge front porch, 10' ceilings,8' Doors on 1st & 9' on second. 5 Bedrooms in total: Primary Suite on the main, 4 bedrooms (including 2nd Primary Suite) and oversized Game Room upstairs. Loaded with designer upgrades. Relax outside with oversized front & rear covered porches and outdoor fireplace. List price includes a price reduction incentive, also receive a total of $15K toward CC. **Incentives are tied to the use of Seller’s Preferred Lender and Title Company.2-1 BUY-DOWN AND NO COST RE-FINANCE AVAILABLE! Please see on-site agent for details.

16. 2023-03-17
    status Pending 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This listing is our Wentworth Craftsman floorplan featuring Double front doors and huge front porch, 10' ceilings,8' Doors on 1st & 9' on second. 5 Bedrooms in total: Primary Suite on the main, 4 bedrooms (including 2nd Primary Suite) and oversized Game Room upstairs. Loaded with designer upgrades. Relax outside with oversized front & rear covered porches and outdoor fireplace. List price includes a price reduction incentive, also receive a total of $15K toward CC. **Incentives are tied to the use of Seller’s Preferred Lender and Title Company.2-1 BUY-DOWN AND NO COST RE-FINANCE AVAILABLE! Please see on-site agent for details.

17. 2023-03-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This listing is our Wentworth Craftsman floorplan featuring Double front doors and huge front porch, 10' ceilings,8' Doors on 1st & 9' on second. 5 Bedrooms in total: Primary Suite on the main, 4 bedrooms (including 2nd Primary Suite) and oversized Game Room upstairs. Loaded with designer upgrades. Relax outside with oversized front & rear covered porches and outdoor fireplace. List price includes a price reduction incentive, also receive a total of $15K toward CC. **Incentives are tied to the use of Seller’s Preferred Lender and Title Company.2-1 BUY-DOWN AND NO COST RE-FINANCE AVAILABLE! Please see on-site agent for details.

18. 2023-03-01
    listed $914,990 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! This listing is our Wentworth Craftsman floorplan featuring Double front doors and huge front porch, 10' ceilings,8' Doors on 1st & 9' on second. 5 Bedrooms in total: Primary Suite on the main, 4 bedrooms (including 2nd Primary Suite) and oversized Game Room upstairs. Loaded with designer upgrades. Relax outside with oversized front & rear covered porches and outdoor fireplace. List price includes a price reduction incentive, also receive a total of $15K toward CC. **Incentives are tied to the use of Seller’s Preferred Lender and Title Company.2-1 BUY-DOWN AND NO COST RE-FINANCE AVAILABLE! Please see on-site agent for details.

19. 2023-02-20
    price $929,990
20. 2023-02-02
    listed $939,990 Active
21. 2023-02-01
    historical
22. 2023-01-27
    price $939,990
23. 2023-01-07
    listed $976,955 Active
24. 2023-01-01
    historical
25. 2022-12-01
    historical
26. 2022-12-01
    listed $976,955 Active
27. 2022-11-01
    listed $986,955 Active
28. 2022-10-31
    historical
29. 2022-10-07
    price $996,955
30. 2022-09-23
    price $1,016,955
31. 2022-09-09
    price $999,000
32. 2022-07-20
    price $1,000,000
33. 2022-07-01
    listed $1,016,955 Active
34. 2022-06-30
    historical
35. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $1,767,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,332 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,100 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,768/yr (+$314/mo · 113.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,016
• − Property taxes: −$3,332
• − Insurance: −$5,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable loss: −$29,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nolensville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #2317

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,409
• Population (ZIP): 3,633

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 498.4505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-43.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $1,000,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-29 Sold (MLS) $914,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-17 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-01 Listed $914,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-20 Price Changed $929,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-02 Listed $939,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Price Changed $939,990 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-07 Listed $976,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Listed $976,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-01 Listed $986,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $996,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $1,016,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $999,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-20 Price Changed $1,000,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Listed $1,016,955 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-30 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,767,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+67.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,332 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.