4041-4047 Ellis Rd

Vine Hill, CA 94553

$859,900C+

28 bd · 12.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1941 · MultiFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,509
• Tax + insurance: −$1,433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,298
• Net cashflow: $2,701/mo
• Annual: $32,410/yr
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $240,772

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $860k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive. Per door: $675/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $860k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($808k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $808k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martinez Unified (suburban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #120 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $241k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $10,941/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($124k/yr) (locally 1207% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.