4041-4047 Ellis Rd · Vine Hill, CA 94553

$859,900

28 bd · 12.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · MultiFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1941 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot $358/sqft · 8% above area Est $799k · 8% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Rare find! Lot's of potential with this property! Cute single family home plus a duplex, detached garage (currently used as a large storage room) shared laundry room and storage room next to the laundry room. Single family home has been nicely updated and features 3 beds, 1 bath, newer paint, flooring, move in ready! Both duplex units features 2 beds, 1 bath, eat-in kitchen and living room. Conveniently located to Highway 680, schools and a short drive to vibrant Downtown Martinez.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Shared laundry room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• SHARED LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $860k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive. Per door: $675/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $860k).
• Recommended offer: $808k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#436 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martinez Unified (suburban): math 42% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #120 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,941/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($124k/yr) (locally 1207% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $241k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($808k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $808,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $799,000
• List price: $859,900
• Delta: 7.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $39,819
• Equity at exit: $128,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $285,849
• Equity at exit: $74,348

Cash invested: $240,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94553

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 26.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,941 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,075 /mo · $12,898/yr
• Insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,298
• Net cashflow: $2,701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,522

Max offer price $859,900

Occupancy floor 70%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	1	$10,940
Total (4 units)			$10,941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $214,975
• Closing costs: $25,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $859,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $859,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $859,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $859,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $859,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $859,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $859,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $859,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $859,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $859,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-03-18
    price $859,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Rare find! Lot's of potential with this property! Cute single family home plus a duplex, detached garage (currently used as a large storage room) shared laundry room and storage room next to the laundry room. Single family home has been nicely updated and features 3 beds, 1 bath, newer paint, flooring, move in ready! Both duplex units features 2 beds, 1 bath, eat-in kitchen and living room. Conveniently located to Highway 680, schools and a short drive to vibrant Downtown Martinez.

12. 2026-03-18
    listed $874,900 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Rare find! Lot's of potential with this property! Cute single family home plus a duplex, detached garage (currently used as a large storage room) shared laundry room and storage room next to the laundry room. Single family home has been nicely updated and features 3 beds, 1 bath, newer paint, flooring, move in ready! Both duplex units features 2 beds, 1 bath, eat-in kitchen and living room. Conveniently located to Highway 680, schools and a short drive to vibrant Downtown Martinez.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $131,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,168
• − Property taxes: −$12,898
• − Insurance: −$4,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,503
• − Management: −$10,503
• − Depreciation: −$25,015
• Taxable income: $19,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,777
• After-tax cash flow: $27,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with updated interiors and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martinez Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624030
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $76,715
• Composite: 46.1/100
• National rank: #2509
• State rank: #120 of 517 in CA

Livability — Vine Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #14952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vine Hill, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,643
• Household income: $124,130
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1207.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -736.61%
• Current HPI: 296.2457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $859,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $874,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR