3212 Paradise Trl

Lake Orion, MI 48371

$219,500D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,718 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$475
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-328/mo
• Annual: $-3,931/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $61,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MI, #1,679 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.