3212 Paradise Trl · Lake Orion, MI 48371

$219,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,718 sqft · Condo public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2005 $128/sqft · 24% below area Est $243k · 10% under $475/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen - ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony - perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

Key facts

• $475 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MI, #1,679 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $161,635 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,013
• List price: $219,500
• Delta: -9.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-56,141
• Equity at exit: $32,728

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-74,570
• Equity at exit: $18,978

Cash invested: $61,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48371

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,151
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,662/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$475
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $161,635

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,875
• Closing costs: $6,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 S Broadway St Lake Orion, MI	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,950	$2.77	14d	1	1.11mi
733 Luna Ct Lake Orion, MI	3.0	1.5	1177	$2,695	$2.29	19d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $475 · $5,700/yr
• Likely covers: gas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

   Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 1295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

   Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $219,500 Active 1287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

   Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

4. 2026-04-03
   listed $219,500 Active 1295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

   Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

5. 2026-04-02
   historical $219,500 1287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1287 chars)

   Seller open to offering concessions with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully maintained end-unit condo in the sought-after Hills of Oxford, offering a bright, open layout and vaulted ceilings throughout. The spacious great room features a cozy gas fireplace and flows effortlessly into the dining area and kitchen - ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat with vaulted ceilings, a walk-in closet plus an additional closet, a full en-suite bath, and a private door wall leading to the balcony - perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. A generously sized second bedroom and full bath provide comfortable accommodations for guests or family. A versatile flex room with French doors offers endless possibilities as a third bedroom, home office, den, or library. Additional highlights include a direct-access, inline two-car garage, ample guest parking, and a new AC unit (2021). Residents enjoy convenient access to the Oxford/Lake Orion bike path and Paint Creek Trail, along with nearby shopping, parks, restaurants, and the charm of downtown Lake Orion and Oxford. Located within award-winning Lake Orion Schools, this move-in-ready condo offers comfort, convenience, and an exceptional location.

6. 2026-03-31
   historical
7. 2026-03-25
   price $219,500
8. 2026-03-24
   price $219,500
9. 2026-02-20
   listed $235,000 Active
10. 2026-02-20
    listed $235,000 Active
11. 2026-02-19
    historical
12. 2026-02-18
    historical
13. 2026-01-16
    listed $245,000 Active
14. 2026-01-16
    listed $245,000 Active
15. 2026-01-14
    historical
16. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $195,000
17. 2022-01-19
    soldstatus $195,000
18. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold
19. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed
20. 2021-11-11
    status Pending
21. 2021-11-11
    status Pending
22. 2021-10-31
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2021-10-31
    listed $199,900 Active
24. 2020-10-08
    soldstatus $165,000
25. 2020-08-04
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold
26. 2020-08-04
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
27. 2020-06-27
    status Pending
28. 2020-06-27
    status Pending
29. 2020-06-16
    listed $179,900 Active
30. 2020-06-16
    listed $179,900 Active
31. 2008-12-05
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,662 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,021 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$359/yr (+$30/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,295
• − Property taxes: −$2,662
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − HOA: −$5,700
• − Depreciation: −$6,385
• Taxable loss: −$7,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lake Orion

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #1679

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,972
• Household income: $111,239
• Rent vs Own: 11.6% rent · 88.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.77%
• Current HPI: 199.921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-03 Listed $219,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $219,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $219,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $219,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $219,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-20 Listed $235,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $235,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-19 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $245,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $245,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-14 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $195,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-11-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-10-31 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-10-31 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-04 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-08-04 Sold (MLS) $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-06-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-06-16 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-06-16 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,662 · -35.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.