6909 Lilac Dr

Venus, TX 76084

$350,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$854
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-928/mo
• Annual: $-11,133/yr
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.36%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-928 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (46.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J A Vitovsky El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 22% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midlothian ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.