3184 Pondcreek Rd

Belfry, KY 41555

$20,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $230/mo
• Annual: $2,762/yr
• Cap rate: 45.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 140.72%
• DSCR: 7.26
• 1% rule: 4.92%
• Cash to close: $5,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $20k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $690 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $552 appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Elementary (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 592 students, 68% FRL); Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.